Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan / Previsão de produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelos inteligentes de dados no Paquistão

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

Dietary habits of lesser bandicoot rat (Bandicota Bengalensis) in an agro-ecosystem, Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan / Hábitos alimentares de rato bandicoot (Bandicota Bengalensis) em um agroecossistema do Planalto de Pothwar, Paquistão

Abstract Dietary habits of bandicoot rats (bandicota bengalensis) were investigated in the agricultural crops of the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan by analysing stomach contents. The research activities were conducted in major field crops including wheat-groundnut and in the fallow lands during non-crop season at the field boundaries. The specimens were captured from the fields using kill/snap traps, and dissected to collect their stomach samples for laboratory analysis. Light microscopic slides of the plant material were recovered from stomach samples and the reference materials were collected from the field. Results revealed that the bandicoot rat predominantly fed upon cultivated crops during cropping season but consumed wild vegetation during non-cropping season. There was no significance difference between summer and winter diets. Most frequently consumed crop food items were wheat (Triticum aestivum; 28.57%), groundnut (Arachis hypogea; 11.26%), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor; 10.17%), chickpea (Cicer arietinum; 9.52%), maize (Zea mays; 6.49%), millet (Pennisetum glaucum; 5.84%), barley (Hordeum vulgare; 4.98%) and mustard (Brassica campestris; 4.98%). Among wild vegetation were consumed khbal gha (Cynodon dactylon; 7.79%), baron dhab (Demostachya bipinnata; 7.36%) and Prickly flower (Achyranthes aspera; 3.03%). The study concludes that, in addition to consuming wheat and groundnut crops, the Lesser bandicoot rat also subsists on grasses, weeds, and some fodder crops, as important component of its diet in agro-ecosystem of the Pothwar Plateau.

Resumo Os hábitos alimentares de ratos bandicoot (Bandicota bengalensis) foram investigados nas plantações agrícolas do planalto de Pothwar, Paquistão, por meio da análise do conteúdo estomacal. As atividades da pesquisa foram conduzidas nas principais culturas de campo, incluindo trigo e amendoim, e em terras de pousio durante a estação não agrícola nos limites do campo. Os espécimes foram capturados dos campos usando armadilhas kill/snap e dissecados para coletar suas amostras de estômago para análise laboratorial. Lâminas de microscopia de luz do material vegetal foram recuperadas de amostras de estômago; os materiais de referência foram coletados no campo. Os resultados revelaram que o rato bandicoot alimentava-se predominantemente de culturas cultivadas durante a época de cultivo, mas consumia vegetação selvagem durante a época de não colheita. Não houve diferença significativa entre as dietas de verão e inverno. Os alimentos agrícolas mais frequentemente consumidos foram trigo (Triticum aestivum; 28,57%), amendoim (Arachis hypogea; 11,26%), sorgo (Sorghum bicolor; 10,17%), grão de bico (Cicer arietinum; 9,52%), milho (Zea mays; 6,49%), milheto (Pennisetum glaucum; 5,84%), cevada (Hordeum vulgare; 4,98%) e mostarda (Brassica campestris; 4,98%). Entre a vegetação silvestre foram consumidos khbal gha (Cynodon dactylon; 7,79%), barão dhab (Demostachya bipinnata; 7,36%) e flor espinhosa (Achyranthes aspera; 3,03%). O estudo conclui que, além de consumir culturas de trigo e amendoim, o rato bandicoot pequeno também subsiste de gramíneas, ervas daninhas e algumas culturas forrageiras, componentes importantes de sua dieta no agroecossistema do planalto de Pothwar.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), Willmotts index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

Phylogenetic status and diet of red fox (Vulpes vulpes griffithii) inhabiting Ayubia National Park, Pakistan

Abstract The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a medium-sized carnivore that occurs in different regions of Pakistan, however, still lacks scientific data on its ecology and distribution. The current study investigated the phylogenetic status and diet of the red fox (V.v. griffithii) occurring in Ayubia National Park, Pakistan. Through camera trapping and molecular analysis, we confirmed the occurrence of red fox in the study area. Based on mitochondrial cytochrome B (304 bp) and limited sampling, nearly all red foxes of Ayubia National Park and surrounding Himalayan ranges fall within Holarctic maternal lineage, whereas red foxes found in plains of Pakistan are part of the basal Palearctic maternal lineage. Using 32 scats, we found that red fox diet comprises of 80% animal-based prey species (both wild and domestic) and 19% plant matter. The wild animal prey species included Cape hare (Lepus capensis) and flying squirrel (Pteromyini sp.), which constituted 17% and 15% of diet, respectively. Red foxes infrequently consumed House mouse (Mus musculus), Himalayan Palm civet (Paguma larvata) and sheep (Ovis aries), each comprising around 6% to 9% of red fox diet. The fox species also scavenged on domestic donkey opportunistically. Based on our sampling, our study suggests that the red fox (V.v. griffithii) that occurs in Ayubia National Park and across the lesser Himalayan ranges belongs to Holarctic maternal lineage. The study also highlights consumption of plant seeds by red foxes, indicating it may play an important ecological role in seed dispersal in Ayubia National Park.

Resumo A raposa-vermelha (Vulpes vulpes) é um carnívoro de médio porte que ocorre em diferentes regiões do Paquistão, porém ainda carece de dados científicos sobre sua ecologia e distribuição. O presente estudo investigou o status filogenético e a dieta da raposa-vermelha (V.v. griffithii) que ocorre no Parque Nacional de Ayubia, Paquistão. Por meio de armadilhas fotográficas e análises moleculares, confirmamos a ocorrência de raposa-vermelha na área de estudo. Com base no citocromo B mitocondrial (304 bp) e amostragem limitada, quase todas as raposas-vermelhas do Parque Nacional de Ayubia e áreas circundantes do Himalaia se enquadram na linhagem materna holártica, enquanto as raposas-vermelhas encontradas nas planícies do Paquistão fazem parte da linhagem materna basal paleártica. Usando 32 fezes, descobrimos que a dieta da raposa-vermelha compreende 80% de espécies de presas de origem animal (selvagens e domésticas) e 19% de matéria vegetal. As espécies de presas de animais selvagens incluíram a lebre-do-cabo (Lepus capensis) e o esquilo-voador (Pteromyini sp.), que constituíram 17% e 15% da dieta, respectivamente. As raposas-vermelhas consumiam raramente ratos domésticos (Mus musculus), algas do Himalaia (Paguma larvata) e ovelhas (Ovis aries), cada um compreendendo cerca de 6% a 9% da dieta da raposa-vermelha. A espécie de raposa também se alimentava de burros domésticos de forma oportunista. Com base em nossa amostragem, nosso estudo sugere que a raposa-vermelha (V.v. griffithii) que ocorre no Parque Nacional de Ayubia e nas cordilheiras menores do Himalaia pertence à linhagem materna holártica. O estudo também destaca o consumo de sementes de plantas por raposas-vermelhas, indicando que pode desempenhar um papel ecológico importante na dispersão de sementes no Parque Nacional de Ayubia.

Dietary habits of lesser bandicoot rat (Bandicota Bengalensis) in an agro-ecosystem, Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan

Abstract Dietary habits of bandicoot rats (bandicota bengalensis) were investigated in the agricultural crops of the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan by analysing stomach contents. The research activities were conducted in major field crops including wheat-groundnut and in the fallow lands during non-crop season at the field boundaries. The specimens were captured from the fields using kill/snap traps, and dissected to collect their stomach samples for laboratory analysis. Light microscopic slides of the plant material were recovered from stomach samples and the reference materials were collected from the field. Results revealed that the bandicoot rat predominantly fed upon cultivated crops during cropping season but consumed wild vegetation during non-cropping season. There was no significance difference between summer and winter diets. Most frequently consumed crop food items were wheat (Triticum aestivum; 28.57%), groundnut (Arachis hypogea; 11.26%), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor; 10.17%), chickpea (Cicer arietinum; 9.52%), maize (Zea mays; 6.49%), millet (Pennisetum glaucum; 5.84%), barley (Hordeum vulgare; 4.98%) and mustard (Brassica campestris; 4.98%). Among wild vegetation were consumed khbal gha (Cynodon dactylon; 7.79%), baron dhab (Demostachya bipinnata; 7.36%) and Prickly flower (Achyranthes aspera; 3.03%). The study concludes that, in addition to consuming wheat and groundnut crops, the Lesser bandicoot rat also subsists on grasses, weeds, and some fodder crops, as important component of its diet in agro-ecosystem of the Pothwar Plateau.

Resumo Os hábitos alimentares de ratos bandicoot (Bandicota bengalensis) foram investigados nas plantações agrícolas do planalto de Pothwar, Paquistão, por meio da análise do conteúdo estomacal. As atividades da pesquisa foram conduzidas nas principais culturas de campo, incluindo trigo e amendoim, e em terras de pousio durante a estação não agrícola nos limites do campo. Os espécimes foram capturados dos campos usando armadilhas kill/snap e dissecados para coletar suas amostras de estômago para análise laboratorial. Lâminas de microscopia de luz do material vegetal foram recuperadas de amostras de estômago; os materiais de referência foram coletados no campo. Os resultados revelaram que o rato bandicoot alimentava-se predominantemente de culturas cultivadas durante a época de cultivo, mas consumia vegetação selvagem durante a época de não colheita. Não houve diferença significativa entre as dietas de verão e inverno. Os alimentos agrícolas mais frequentemente consumidos foram trigo (Triticum aestivum; 28,57%), amendoim (Arachis hypogea; 11,26%), sorgo (Sorghum bicolor; 10,17%), grão de bico (Cicer arietinum; 9,52%), milho (Zea mays; 6,49%), milheto (Pennisetum glaucum; 5,84%), cevada (Hordeum vulgare; 4,98%) e mostarda (Brassica campestris; 4,98%). Entre a vegetação silvestre foram consumidos khbal gha (Cynodon dactylon; 7,79%), barão dhab (Demostachya bipinnata; 7,36%) e flor espinhosa (Achyranthes aspera; 3,03%). O estudo conclui que, além de consumir culturas de trigo e amendoim, o rato bandicoot pequeno também subsiste de gramíneas, ervas daninhas e algumas culturas forrageiras, componentes importantes de sua dieta no agroecossistema do planalto de Pothwar.

Estimation of 10-Year Fracture Risk with and without Bone Mineral Density in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is the most common inflammatory arthritis affecting 0.5-1.0% of the general population worldwide and although RA is properly considered a disease of the joints, it can cause a variety of extra-articular manifestations. This study was performed to find out any discrepancy in fracture risk estimates with and without bone mineral density (BMD) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. This observational cross-sectional study was carried out in the Department of Rheumatology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU), Bangladesh from July 2013 to July 2015. Total 65 consecutive patients with RA fulfilling ACR/EULAR criteria aged 40-90 year were recruited. Ten year fracture risk of these patients was evaluated by the FRAX score with and without BMD and differences were observed. FRAX score without BMD revealed that major fracture risk was low in 58(89.2%) patients, moderate in 7(10.8%) patients but re-estimation with BMD revealed that 55(84.6%) patients remained in low risk group, 8(12.3%) patients in moderate risk group and 2(3.1%) patients went to the high risk group. In case of hip fracture risk without BMD, risk was low in 58(89.2%) patients, high in 7(10.8%) patients; but with BMD, 50(76.9%) patients remained in low risk group but risk of 15(23.1%) patients became high. Almost all the high risk patients (93.3%) were ≥55 years of age. Increasing age, female sex, disease duration and use of steroid were positively correlated with increased FRAX score where as high BMI and high BMD were associated with low FRAX score. But in multivariate analysis it was found that only relation with age was at statistically significant level. Significant numbers of patients with rheumatoid arthritis have high risk of fracture especially hip fracture. The mean of FRAX score increased in both major & hip osteoporotic fracture risk after adding BMD. More than half of the patients above fifty five years or more had high risk of fracture. So, BMD should be done in patients aged more than fifty five.

Glasgow Coma Score Predicting the Poor Outcome of the Patients Presenting Fever with Altered Sensorium.

To assess the role of the Glasgow Comma Score (GCS) for predicting the outcome of the patient with fever and altered sensorium was the objective of the study. This prospective observational study was conducted for six months following ethical approval. Informed consent was obtained prior enrollment. A total of 50 patients with complaints of fever for <2 weeks duration with altered sensorium with or without seizure were included in the study. GCS was calculated for all patients just after admission and before starting interventions. All patients were investigated and managed according to the hospital protocol. The outcome of the patients (living or dead within the hospital) was evaluated against the admission GCS score. The study was performed in accordance with the current Declaration of Helsinki. Of all, 42.0% (n=21) of the patients had bacterial meningitis, followed by viral encephalitis, cerebral malaria and coma vigil. Complete recovery occurred in 60.0% of cases, while recovery with disability occurred in 28.0% of cases. Death occurred in 12.0% of cases (n=6) due to cerebral malaria, viral encephalitis and bacterial meningitis (n=2 each cause). A higher number of deaths occurred in the lower GCS group (n=5 in GCS group 3-5) and this difference was statistically significant (p<0.05). Moreover, considering death as an outcome, multivariate logistic regression showed that GCS (OR 70.598, 95% CI-1.243-4009.41; p=0.039) was an independent predictor of the outcome. GCS seemed to be a predictor of the short-term outcome of the patient presenting with fever and altered sensorium in our setting. However, further exploration in larger setting with appropriate study design is recommended.

Small rodent communities and their associated damage to wheat-groundnut agriculture systems.

Rodents can cause significant damage to wheat-groundnut crops in developing countries, as well as to stored produce and infrastructure, affecting food security and income of small-holder farmers. Wheat (Triticum aestivum) and groundnuts (Arachis hypogea) are important cash crops for local farmers in Pakistan. Field experiments were performed to assess the extent of rodent damage to wheat-groundnut crops throughout their growth stages (i.e, germination, flowering/peg formation and maturity) in the agro-ecological zones of Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan. We used a quadrat method to record the number of damaged crop plants. On the basis of the trapping data four rodent species were captured from wheat-groundnut cropping systems which were responsible for causing damage, i.e., lesser bandicoot rat (Bandicota bengalensis) was the main species, followed by the short-tailed mole rat (Nesokia indica), the Indian gerbil (Tatera indica) and the bush rat (Golunda ellioti). In both crops, the maximum damage was recorded at crop maturity (10.7 and 14.4%, respectively). The lowest reported damage to wheat and groundnuts was at the germination stage (3.5% and 6.0%, respectively). The lower damage reported at germination could be due to availability of non-crop vegetation at field borders that may be a potential factor influencing damage. Our findings clearly show the considerable amount of damage caused by rodents to wheat-groundnut at maturity across all the agro-ecological zones of Pothwar and indicated that the small mammal composition was more related to maturity stage/season of crops, when the availability of food and climatic condition were favorable and having security under crop shelter. More detailed studies are needed to fully understand the population and breeding ecology of the relevant rodent pest species in relation to damage patterns to optimize management beyond individual structural measures.

Drought stress enhances the efficiency of floral dip method of Agrobacterium-mediated transformation in Arabidopsis thaliana.

The Agrobacterium-mediated floral dip protocol is the most extensively used transformation method for a model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. Several useful methods for Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformations of Arabidopsis are existing, but they are time consuming and with low transformation efficiency. Here, we developed a transgenic Arabidopsis lines TET12p::TET12-RFP in a short period of time and enhanced transformation efficiency by using a modified transformation method by applying drought stress after floral dip. In this protocol, Agrobacterium cells carrying TET12p::TET12-RFP recombinant vectors were resuspended in a solution of 5% sucrose, 0.05% (v/v) silwet L-77 to transform female gametes of developing Arabidopsis inflorescences. Treated Arabidopsis were then applied with different levels of drought stresses to stimulate plants for the utilization of maximum plant energy in seed maturation process. The applied stresses achieved the fast maturation of already treated inflorescences while stopped the growing of newly arising untreated inflorescence, thus decreased the chances of wrong collection of untransformed seeds. Consequently, the collected seeds were mostly transgenic with a transformation frequency of at least 10%, thus the screening for positive transformants selection was more advantageous on a selective medium as compared to a classical floral dip method. Within 2-3 months, two hundred of individual transgenic plants were produced from just 10 infiltrated plants. This study concludes that application of drought stresses in a specific stage of plant is a beneficial strategy for achieving the transgenic Arabidopsis in a short period of time with high transformation efficiency.

Population and risk assessment of sympatric pheasant species in Palas Valley, Pakistan.

Pheasants are declining everywhere in the world and therefore updated information about their population and habitats are important for conservation and management. The present study was conducted in the Palas Valley, District Kohistan, Pakistan in late spring (May and June) 2020 and early spring (March and April) 2021 to assess the population and anthropogenic stress. The major focus was on three sympatric pheasant species, including Western Horned Tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus), Himalayan Monal (Lophophorus impejanus), and Koklass Pheasant (Pucrasia macrolopha). We used the "Call Count Method" for the population assessment in the field, and a questionnaire survey was conducted to document the risk assessment of local residents of the valley. The population assessments revealed that the Koklass Pheasant is more adapted to increasing anthropogenic activities and its population appeared more or less similar as 22 years ago. In the past 22 years, Western Tragopan and Himalayan Monal have lost about 40-50% of their populations. Human interference in the form of illegal hunting, deforestation, and overgrazing was found to be common in the valley. The study concludes that the Palas Valley habitat is ideal for pheasant species; however, human interference in the form of urbanization, habitat fragmentation, illegal hunting, and deforestation is occurring at a rapid pace, causing havoc in the pheasant population.

Serum Glucose Measurement after Five to Six Hours is Comparable to Eight Hours Fasting in Ramadan.

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate whether a shorter fasting duration of five to six hours can be used as an alternative to the usually recommended eight hours for fasting glucose measurement. Methods: This one-month observational, cross-sectional study was conducted during Ramadan (May to June) 2019. It included those attending Faiha Specialized Diabetes, Endocrine and Metabolism Center, Basrah, Iraq; all individuals ate a pre-dawn meal (suhoor) followed by a complete fast for many hours. Two fasting serum glucose (FSG) venous samples were taken; the first was taken five to six hours and the second eight hours after the pre-dawn meal. Participants were divided into two groups: individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and those with a normal glucose level. T2DM patients were further subdivided into three groups: those without treatment, those on oral antidiabetic drugs (OAD) and those using insulin and OAD. Results: A total of 200 individuals participated in this study. There was no significant difference found between the mean FSG levels in the first and second samples for those without T2DM (104.5 ± 21.4 mg/dL versus 104.8 ± 12.6 mg/dL; P = 0.80) as well as those with T2DM (235.0 ± 107.0 mg/dL versus 230.0 ± 105.0 mg/dL; P = 0.20). Untreated T2DM patients had non-significant FSG readings for the two samples (194.0 ± 151.5 mg/dL versus 193.9 ± 128.9 mg/dL; P = 0.90). Patients on insulin and OAD showed a similar pattern of FSG (268.0 ± 111.0 mg/dL versus 269.0 ± 114.0 mg/dL). However, the two FSG samples were found to be significantly different among patients on OAD (220.0 ± 78.0 mg/dL versus 207.0 ± 77.0 mg/dL; P = 0.01). Conclusion: The fasting duration of five to six hours can give a comparable measurement of FSG as that obtained after eight hours.

Dietary habits of lesser bandicoot rat (Bandicota Bengalensis) in an agro-ecosystem, Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan.

Dietary habits of bandicoot rats (bandicota bengalensis) were investigated in the agricultural crops of the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan by analysing stomach contents. The research activities were conducted in major field crops including wheat-groundnut and in the fallow lands during non-crop season at the field boundaries. The specimens were captured from the fields using kill/snap traps, and dissected to collect their stomach samples for laboratory analysis. Light microscopic slides of the plant material were recovered from stomach samples and the reference materials were collected from the field. Results revealed that the bandicoot rat predominantly fed upon cultivated crops during cropping season but consumed wild vegetation during non-cropping season. There was no significance difference between summer and winter diets. Most frequently consumed crop food items were wheat (Triticum aestivum; 28.57%), groundnut (Arachis hypogea; 11.26%), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor; 10.17%), chickpea (Cicer arietinum; 9.52%), maize (Zea mays; 6.49%), millet (Pennisetum glaucum; 5.84%), barley (Hordeum vulgare; 4.98%) and mustard (Brassica campestris; 4.98%). Among wild vegetation were consumed khbal gha (Cynodon dactylon; 7.79%), baron dhab (Demostachya bipinnata; 7.36%) and Prickly flower (Achyranthes aspera; 3.03%). The study concludes that, in addition to consuming wheat and groundnut crops, the Lesser bandicoot rat also subsists on grasses, weeds, and some fodder crops, as important component of its diet in agro-ecosystem of the Pothwar Plateau.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan.

This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Effects of exogenous α-(1,4)-amylase on the utilisation of corn starch and glucose metabolism in broiler chickens.

Starch is the most important energy source in corn-based diets for broiler chickens, however, some proportion of dietary starch may be partially digested, leading to a decrease in feed utilisation. Therefore, supplementing exogenous amylase might be a feasible way to improve the utilisation of dietary starch for poultry. This study investigated the effects of exogenous α-(1,4)-amylase supplementation on the utilisation of corn starch and glucose metabolism in broiler chickens. A total of 560, 4-d-old Arbour Acres plus male broiler chicks were randomly divided into five treatment groups and fed a corn-soybean meal diet supplemented with 0, 400, 600, 800 and 1 200 U/kg α-(1,4)-amylase to evaluate growth. The growth performance, nutrient digestibility coefficients, digestive enzyme activity, glucose transporter transcription and cecal microbiota composition were evaluated in this study. Starch digestibility coefficient showed a quadratic response to α-(1,4)-amylase at 14 d and 42 d (P < 0.05). However, the endogenous α-amylase activity in jejunal content was linearly decreased (P = 0.045). Also, exogenous α-(1,4)-amylase linearly decreased ileal Na+-dependent glucose and galactose transporter 1 mRNA expression at 42 d (P < 0.001). Exogenous α-(1,4)-amylase generated higher insulin and glucagon serum concentrations in fasted birds (P < 0.05) and following re-feeding for 2 h (P < 0.001). BW gain and feed intake were strongly positively correlated with starch digestibility coefficient at both 14 d (r = 0.87) and 42 d (r = 0.91); whereas, the relative weight of the gizzard was weakly negatively correlated with starch digestibility coefficient (r = -0.35). The relative abundance of Unclassified_Bacillaceae was moderately positively correlated (r > 0.50) while Oscillospira, Ornithobacterium and Unclassified_Barnesiellaceae were moderately negatively correlated (-0.50 < r -0.39) with starch digestibility coefficient. In conclusion, exogenous α-amylase modulates metabolic function by increasing insulin and glucagon concentrations, influenced gut microbiota which may impact starch digestibility in the jejunum and ileum. The results of this study showed that excessive addition of exogenous α-(1,4)-amylase was not beneficial for the utilisation of starch in broiler chickens. Supplement more than 600 U/kg α-(1,4)-amylase inhibited glucose transporters, decreases the coefficients of starch and organic matter digestibility in the small intestine to a varying degree, thereby limiting the growth performance of broiler chickens.

Development of the First Health-Related Quality of Life Questionnaires in Arabic for Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (Part I): The Creation and Reliability Analysis of PCOSQoL-47 and PCOSQoL-42 Questionnaires.

Background and objective We lack a reliable and validated health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaire to measure the negative impact of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) on the various aspects of the lives of Arabic women, which addresses sexuality in married women only. Hence, we aimed to develop two separate, simple, reliable, validated, and easily interpretable HRQoL questionnaires in Arabic for married and unmarried women with PCOS for effective QoL evaluation. Materials and methods The development and reliability analysis of the Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Quality of Life (PCOSQoL)-47 and PCOSQoL-42 involved two quantitative and qualitative phases. Phase 1 included retrieval of 158 items from 584 PubMed articles, item reduction, Arabic translation, content and face validity testing, creation of a five-domain draft (53 items for married and 45 items for unmarried women), with no sexuality domain for unmarried women. Phase 2 involved test-retest reliability, which involved using the Spearman's correlation, Wilcoxon nonparametric signed-rank, and internal consistency using Cronbach's-alpha, inter-item, and intraclass correlation (ICC) coefficients, as well as creating a second draft (47 items for married and 42 items for unmarried women). Results The content validity indices testing by 26 healthcare experts decreased the item pool to 57 items for married and 45 items for unmarried women. Face validity by another 30 experts and 30 women from each group resulted in a further reduction to 53 items for married and 45 items for unmarried women, to be tested in a pilot study, which included another 30 women from each group. Test-retest reliability analysis by 195 married and 173 unmarried women revealed significantly excellent redundancy, reliability, and stability of items (highly significant Cronbach's alpha and ICC by internal consistency testing), and reduced the item pool to 47 items for married and 42 items for unmarried women. Conclusions Both questionnaires were found to be highly reliable for the HRQoL evaluation among both married and unmarried Arabic women with different phenotypes of PCOS.

Accelerating Progress in Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights in Eastern Europe and Central Asia - Reflecting on ICPD 25 Nairobi Summit.

The International conference on population and development-25 in Nairobi (2019) has reaffirmed the UN and its member countries' commitment to develop focused strategies to provide comprehensive equitable sexual and reproductive health to every one. European Board and college of Obstetrics and Gynaecology(EBCOG) and the European Society of Contraception and Reproductive Health (ESCRH) commit to work with UNFPA EECA Region to deliver these objectives in Eastern Europe and Central Asia where progress as regards SRH targets has been sub-optimal.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessment of aflatoxins in peanuts grown in the Pothohar area of Pakistan.

A survey was carried out to assess the mycotoxin (aflatoxins) contamination in locally grown peanuts. A total of 72 samples of raw, roasted and salty peanuts were collected randomly from the Pothohar Plateau of Pakistan. The samples were dried, ground and extracted by adding acetonitrile:water (84:16; v/v%). The filtered extracts were cleaned with MycoSep-226 columns and analysed by high-performance liquid chromatography with a fluorescence detector. The limit of quantification for aflatoxin B1 was 1 µg/kg with 70% recovery observed in spiked samples with a concentration range of 1-10 µg/kg. The results indicated that aflatoxins were present in almost 82% of the samples tested, with levels ranging from 14.3 to 98.8 µg/kg. This reflects that optimal conditions for fungal growth and mycotoxin contamination are frequent in peanut crop fields as well as in storehouses. Human exposure to such toxins can be controlled through appropriate measures, creating awareness and implementing regulations.

Raman spectroscopy of blood plasma samples from breast cancer patients at different stages.

Raman spectroscopy was employed for the characterization of blood plasma samples from patients at different stages of breast cancer. Blood plasma samples taken from clinically diagnosed breast cancer patients were compared with healthy controls using multivariate data analysis techniques (principal components analysis - PCA) to establish Raman spectral features which can be considered spectral markers of breast cancer development. All the stages of the disease can be differentiated from normal samples. It is also found that stage 2 and 3 are biochemically similar, but can be differentiated from each other by PCA. The Raman spectral data of the stage 4 is found to be biochemically distinct, but very variable between patients. Raman spectral features associated with DNA and proteins were identified, which are exclusive to patient plasma samples. Moreover, there are several other spectral features which are strikingly different in the blood plasma samples of different stages of breast cancer. In order to further explore the potential of Raman spectroscopy as the basis of a minimally invasive screening technique for breast cancer diagnosis and staging, PCA-Factorial Discriminant Analysis (FDA) was employed to classify the Raman spectral datasets of the blood plasma samples of the breast cancer patients, according to different stages of the disease, yielding promisingly high values of sensitivity and specificity for all stages.

Principal components analysis of Raman spectral data for screening of Hepatitis C infection.

In the current study, Raman spectroscopy is employed for the identification of the biochemical changes taking place during the development of Hepatitis C. The Raman spectral data acquired from the human blood plasma samples of infected and healthy individuals is analysed by Principal Components Analysis and the Raman spectral markers of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection are identified. Spectral changes include those associated with nucleic acidsat720 cm-1, 1077 cm-1 1678 (CO stretching mode of dGTP of RNA), 1778 cm-1 (RNA), with proteins at 1641 cm-1(amide-I), 1721 cm-1(CC stretching of proteins) and lipids at 1738 cm-1(CO of ester group in lipids). These differences in Raman spectral features of blood plasma samples of the patients and healthy volunteers can be associated with the development of the biochemical changes during HCV infection.

Comparison of the diagnostic potential of three anti-citrullinated protein antibodies as adjuncts to rheumatoid factor and CCP in a cohort of South African rheumatoid arthritis patients.

PURPOSE: A retrospective comparison of the prevalence and diagnostic value of anti-Sa, anti-CEP-1, and anti-MCV autoantibodies relative to those of the established autoantibodies, composite RF and anti-CCP-IgG used routinely for RA diagnosis as a component of the ACR 2010 criteria, in a cohort of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug naïve African RA patients (n = 75). METHODS: Serum concentrations of anti-Sa, anti-CEP-1 and anti-MCV autoantibodies were measured using ELISA procedures, while anti-CCP-IgG antibodies were determined by fluorescence enzyme immunoassay, and composite RF by latex-enhanced laser nephelometry. RESULTS: The seropositivity frequencies of anti-Sa, anti-CEP-1 and anti-MCV antibodies for the RA patients were 82, 72, 85%, respectively, while that of anti-CCP-IgG and RF was 87% for both. Overall, anti-MCV demonstrated the best specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), odds ratio and positive likelihood ratio of all the types of autoantibody tested. CONCLUSION: These observations in this unique cohort of RA patients indicated novel associations of all three autoantibodies in regard to HLA-SE risk alleles, disease severity and tobacco use that were not reported before. Elevated anti-Sa titers designated a propensity of higher disease and high-risk alleles in our cohort. Anti-CEP-1 association with HLA-SE homozygosity and high-risk alleles is also novel in this group. Of note, measurement of anti-MCV antibodies on presentation, either as an adjunctive or even as a stand-alone test, surpassed all other biomarkers investigated here and, therefore, may add value to clinical management.